Great Falls Housing Shortage Explained: 630 Units a Year and What It Means for You

Great Falls, Montana, is short about 630 housing units a year, according to the Great Falls Association of Realtors. Over ten years, that adds up to 6,300 homes, apartments, and townhomes that are needed and not yet built.

That estimate came out in September 2026, as the city started planning for Janicki Industries and the other major employers hiring here. Local realtors say the city is at a turning point: growth is coming and the housing is not built yet.

What it means depends on where you sit.

If you rent, expect tight vacancy and plan your next lease early. If you are buying, you are competing for a small number of homes, so preparation matters more than usual. If you are selling, low inventory works in your favor today, but your next move is into the same market.

This guide is part of our Relocating to Great Falls guide. Every number below is attributed and dated.

Have a question about the Great Falls market? Ask Jamie →

The number and where it comes from

The Great Falls housing shortage figure of 630 units a year is an estimate from the Great Falls Association of Realtors (GFAR), released in September 2026.

It is not a count of empty lots or a list of specific projects. It is GFAR's estimate of how many new units the city would need each year to keep up with household growth and expected hiring.

Multiply 630 by ten, and you get the 6,300 figure you may have seen in the news.

Two cautions when you read it.

First, it is an estimate, and estimates change. GFAR will update it as hiring, economic development, and construction unfold.

Second, it is a citywide number. It does not tell you what will happen to any particular home, price range, or part of town.

How inventory got here

Jim Dea, president of GFAR, described the drop this way to KRTV in January 2026.

Great Falls once had around 400 active listings. During the tightest stretch, that number fell to 16 listings in a single month. By January 2026, it had recovered to about 183.

Those are historical figures. The current count is 136 active listings (Montana Regional MLS, Oct 2026).

Janicki did not create the shortage. The company announced its campus while the shortage was already here. Dea has said he has spent his entire career in Great Falls and has never seen the city grow like this.

What is in the pipeline

City officials say 19 residential projects are in predevelopment as of fall 2026.

Two have been named publicly.

Together, those two account for 255 units. That is less than half of one year of GFAR's estimated need.

GFAR, the Great Falls Area Chamber of Commerce and the Great Falls Development Alliance are working to attract developers. Seventeen developer groups toured the city in September 2026 on a visit they organized. Whether those tours turn into permits and shovels in the ground is the thing to watch.

Predevelopment means planning, financing, and approvals. It does not mean construction has started. Most projects at that stage are one to three years from delivering a finished home, and the affordable housing projects in the mix depend on financing that takes longer still.

Our new construction pipeline guide tracks each named project, its status, and what we know about timing.

If you are renting

Rental vacancy in Great Falls was under 5 percent in January 2026, according to KRTV, one of the lowest rates in the city's history.

Low vacancy means fewer choices when your lease ends and less room to negotiate.

Three practical steps.

Start looking 60 to 90 days before your lease ends, not 30.

Ask your landlord about renewal terms early. A renewal you can plan for beats a scramble.

If you have been renting for a few years, run the numbers on buying. Median rent in Great Falls is $1,740 (Realtor.com, Oct 2026). A typical payment on a median-priced home is about $2,900 to $3,100 with taxes, insurance, and mortgage insurance. Our rent vs buy guide walks through how to compare them for your situation.

If you are buying

The median sale price in Great Falls is $383,400 (Montana Regional MLS, Oct 2026). Homes have been on the market a median of 60 days.

In a market with few listings, the buyer who is ready first usually wins. That is not a sales line. It is how offers get chosen when three people want the same house.

What ready looks like:

• A pre-approval letter from a lender, not just a prequalification.
• A clear list of what you need versus what you want.
• A plan for how fast you can see a home after it lists. Same-day showings are normal here.
• Realistic expectations about repairs. Much of the housing stock in Great Falls was built before 1980.

First-time buyers have more help than most people realize. Montana down payment assistance and first-time programs can change the math. Our first-time homebuyer page explains what is available and who qualifies.

If you have bought before, our buyer services page covers how we work with buyers in a low-inventory market, including remote showings for people moving from out of state.

If you are selling

Low inventory favors sellers. Priced-right homes in Great Falls have been drawing attention quickly, and the list-to-sale ratio has been 100% (Montana Regional MLS, Oct 2026).

Here is what we will not tell you. We will not tell you what prices will do in 2027 or 2028. GFAR expects demand to grow. Janicki expects to hire 200 people in 2028 and 1,000 within five years. Those are their statements, not a forecast of your home's value. Anyone who gives you a number is guessing.

The harder question is where you go next.

If you are moving out of the area, selling into low inventory is close to ideal.

If you are staying in Great Falls, you are buying in the same tight market you are selling in. That can work, but it takes planning on timing, contingencies, and sometimes a short-term rental in between.

Our sell now or wait guide walks through the scenarios. If you want to know what your home would list for today, Chris will text you a range.

Talk to us

Jamie Burton spent 20 years in education before real estate and works with buyers and first-time homebuyers at Painted Sky Realty Group, Keller Williams Northern Montana Realty. Chris Burton works with sellers and relocating buyers.

Text or call Chris: 406-781-1111 · Text

Text or call Jamie: 406-899-9724 · Text

Relocating to Great Falls guide · Sell your home in Great Falls · All services

Sources

• KRTV, "Is Great Falls ready for its housing crunch? Realtors say the city is at a turning point," September 2026 (GFAR 630-unit estimate, 19 projects, Meadowview Village, Bayview, developer tour): https://www.krtv.com/news/is-great-falls-ready-for-its-housing-crunch-realtors-say-the-city-is-at-a-turning-point
• KRTV, "Why housing affordability can be challenging in Great Falls," January 13, 2026 (Jim Dea listing counts, vacancy rate): https://www.krtv.com/news/great-falls-news/why-housing-affordability-can-be-challenging-in-great-falls
• Janicki Industries, Montana page (hiring figures and timeline): https://www.janicki.com/montana/ (modified Sept 10, 2026)